Leading Off:
● FL-05: Unless Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown can pull off a longshot legal victory and convince a federal court to preserve her current gerrymandered seat, she's going to be running for re-election in a district full of Tallahassee voters who don't know her. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has been mentioned as a potential primary challenger numerous times but until now, he's stayed quiet about his 2016 plans. However, the mayor's political advisor Kevin Cate says that Gillum is considering running for this safely blue seat.
Gillum is well-connected and if he gets in, he can definitely give Brown a hard time. Unlike many incumbents, Brown has very little money in the bank, while Gillum should be able to raise the moola he'd need. And while Brown's Jacksonville base contains far more registered Democrats than the Tallahassee area, Florida redistricting expert Matthew Isbel tells us that Tallahassee's Leon County and nearby Gadsden County would make up about 44 percent of the primary electorate in the new district. By contrast, Jacksonville would be expected to cast only about 37 percent of the primary vote.
However, it's far from guaranteed that Gillum will be the only Tallahassee candidate challenging Brown. Ex-state Sen. and 2012 2nd District nominee Al Lawson has also talked about running here and if he takes some votes from Gillum, that's very good news for Brown.
While Brown has her defenders, plenty of Democrats will be far from devastated if Gillum unseats her. GOP mapmakers threw as many African American voters as they could into Brown's old district in order to make it easier for Team Red to hold other Central Florida seats, an arrangement that benefited very few Democrats who weren't named Corrine Brown. Brown joined with Republicans to unsuccessfully fight to keep their map intact and protect her horrifically gerrymandered seat.
Brown's apostasies aren't limited to redistricting either. In September, Brown refused to vote for a Democratic proposal that would have extended federal benefits to same-sex veterans' spouses. By contrast, Gillum is frequently mentioned as a rising star in a swing state where Democrats need to build up their bench, and he'd benefit from a promotion to the House.
